Research

Abstract: Drawing on a novel dataset of more than 10,000 speeches from 1914 to 2024, we track the evolution of Federal Reserve communication and identify three stylized facts. (1) Although the overall volume of speeches has declined over the past decade, the composition of Fed communication has remained notably consistent for forty years, with Federal Reserve Bank (FRB) presidents accounting for the majority of speeches. Participation varies systematically with speaker-specific factors, including professional background and gender, rather than the particular time frame in which the speeches were delivered. (2) While governors’ communication is related to financial stability, FRB presidents’ speaking schedules remain largely decoupled from shifts in their districts. (3) A "complexity paradox" emerges: whereas the readability and conceptual complexity of governors' speeches vary systematically during recessions, FRB presidents show no comparable relationship.

Abstract: We provide evidence on the transmission of oil price movements to individual incomes for a large oil-importing economy. To do so, we trace the footprint of oil price surprises on the income elements of a representative household panel for Germany. An inflationary oil price shock persistently increases the likelihood of unemployment and leads to a sticky decline in contracted labour incomes even though hours worked remain robustly unaffected. These responses are underlined by marked heterogeneity: more vulnerable household groups (namely, the relatively young, without college education, and those with lower incomes) are more affected overall. We find that the responses are driven by individuals who work in procyclical sectors and are in full-time employment. The labour income response of women turns out to be much sharper. Our results also highlight the importance of general equilibrium effects since the responses do not depend on the oil intensity of employment sectors.